Possible scenario
Trade Fight Broadens
25% Chance
The name dispute becomes a political trigger for additional retaliatory steps in the existing U.S.-Canada tariff confrontation. The most affected areas are autos, metals, agriculture, rail freight, and cross-border manufacturers with integrated supply chains.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.9%
- Industrials -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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