Possible scenario
Negotiated Tactical Pause
20% Chance
The drone incident pushes Oman, Qatar, and the U.N. to intensify back-channel talks before the Hormuz crisis spirals further. Iran may use the shootdown as proof of deterrence and accept a limited pause if it can avoid appearing to retreat.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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