Possible scenario
Violence Forces Emergency
30% Chance
The military deployment fails to deter hard-line groups and copycat looting, forcing the Élysée and Interior Ministry to expand emergency restrictions. This would be a material escalation for France but still short of a systemic European crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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