Budget Compromise Offered

15% Chance

Macron tries to reduce street pressure by delaying or softening parts of the €43 billion 2027 austerity package. This lowers near-term unrest risk but raises questions over fiscal credibility and the durability of the budget.

Initial impacts

Market volatility Down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down

Secondary impacts

Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Consumer Services +0.3%
Finance -0.3%

Portfolio impact

S&P 500+0.3%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Budget Compromise Offered

Initial impacts

Secondary impacts

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Portfolio