Possible scenario
Regional Ban Widens
25% Chance
Other Gulf and nearby governments move to reduce exposure to U.S. enforcement after Iraq and the UAE halt Iranian flights. The aviation impact becomes broader across regional routes, though still short of a general economic confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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