Possible scenario
Negotiated Carve-Outs
20% Chance
Iraq tries to balance U.S. sanctions compliance with domestic pressure over religious, medical and family travel to Iran. Washington allows narrow exemptions if payments avoid sanctioned entities and dollar channels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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