Possible scenario
Compliance Holds
45% Chance
Iraq keeps the suspension in place at the four major airports to avoid secondary U.S. sanctions and protect Iraqi banks' access to dollars. Tehran protests diplomatically, but the immediate disruption remains confined to aviation links and passenger rerouting.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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