Possible scenario
Ukraine Rift Deepens
18% Chance
The diesel agreement remains tied to disputes over Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining infrastructure. If Kyiv, Brussels and Washington clash over the policy, the immediate effect is less about barrels and more about sanctions cohesion and geopolitical risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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