Possible scenario
Political Reversal Risk
25% Chance
Congressional critics and state attorneys general challenge the waiver as a weakening of Ukraine-related sanctions. Markets price a meaningful chance that the diesel deal is delayed, narrowed or overturned before supply reaches U.S. consumers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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