Possible scenario
Tariff Bargain Strains
15% Chance
The disagreement broadens from an energy-commitment dispute into a trade-politics issue, with Trump implying that Seoul’s investment pledges were part of the July tariff bargain. This is less likely than a managed clarification but would generate a modest risk-off move in Korea-exposed industrial and trade-sensitive assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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