Possible scenario
Clarification Contains Dispute
45% Chance
South Korea and the White House issue clarifying language that preserves the broader $200 billion energy framework while walking back Trump’s claim that Seoul has committed to revive Alaska LNG. This is the most likely outcome because both governments benefit from avoiding a public rupture after the tariff and investment talks.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
Tickers
- COP-0.5%
- LNG+0.3%
- VG+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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