Possible scenario
North Korea Attribution
18% Chance
South Korea attributes the operation to North Korean-linked actors, most plausibly Lazarus Group, based on infrastructure, malware signatures, or stolen-credential reuse. The impact is still mainly financial-sector and cybersecurity-focused, but geopolitical risk premia rise modestly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.3%
- Technology +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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