Possible scenario
Credit Worries Deepen
30% Chance
Q3 earnings validate investor concern that higher rates are pressuring borrowers and bank balance sheets. Loan-loss provisions, commercial real estate commentary and deposit-cost guidance push bank shares lower.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -3.2%
Tickers
- -4.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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