Possible scenario
Regional Retaliation Escalates
27% Chance
Iran-aligned groups treat Pakistan's entry as a major escalation and retaliate against Saudi infrastructure, Red Sea shipping, or coalition air assets. Tehran avoids a formal declaration of war, but weapons flows and proxy pressure intensify.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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