Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
18% Chance
Oman, China, and the UN use their channels with Tehran, Riyadh, Islamabad, and the Houthis to prevent the campaign from becoming a wider regional confrontation. The parties do not reach a durable settlement, but a temporary de-escalation reduces immediate market risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Consumer Services +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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