Possible scenario
Contained Air Campaign
42% Chance
Pakistan's deployment under the Mecca Defense Pact remains focused on Houthi missile, drone, and logistics nodes in northern Yemen. Riyadh and Islamabad avoid ground operations, while the Houthis absorb losses and respond mostly with propaganda and limited launches.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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