Possible scenario
Plot Investigation Expands
20% Chance
Investigators may find evidence that the suspected co-pilot had contacts with extremist networks or foreign-backed actors. A lone-actor finding remains more likely than a confirmed state-linked plot, but either would keep aviation-security risk elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.6%
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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