Possible scenario
Diplomatic Friction
25% Chance
Abu Dhabi and Dubai could object to public reporting that Israel was prepared to shoot down a civilian jet operated by a UAE carrier. The Abraham Accords framework likely prevents a full rupture, but aviation and security coordination may become more politically sensitive.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.0%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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