Possible scenario
Coercive Standoff Continues
30% Chance
The United States maintains maximum military pressure and the oil-export blockade but does not immediately launch combat operations. This path keeps Brent elevated because Iranian barrels remain constrained and Hormuz risks dominate pricing, but it avoids the shock of direct U.S.-Iran fighting.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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