Possible scenario
Border Risk Escalates
20% Chance
The NATO freeze removes one channel for military transparency and makes crisis management more dependent on bilateral actors. A stalled peace treaty increases the risk of localized clashes around Syunik, Tavush, or the Nakhchivan corridor issue.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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