Possible scenario
Trade Measures Expand
20% Chance
The row moves beyond diplomacy as British ministers consider broader restrictions tied to settlement activity, defense exports, or government procurement. This remains targeted rather than systemic, but it creates modest headline risk for defense contractors and firms with Israel-UK public-sector exposure.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT-0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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