Possible scenario
Palestinian Mobilization Rises
20% Chance
Palestinian factions, local committees, and civil society groups may respond to the blockade and settler attacks with strikes, road protests, and clashes at checkpoints. The key dividing line is whether the Palestinian Authority and local armed groups prevent escalation into sustained attacks on Israeli forces or civilians.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.