Israeli Operation Expands

The Netanyahu government could use the blockade and rising settler-Palestinian violence to justify a larger security campaign, particularly if ministers aligned with Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir argue the West Bank requires a Gaza-style approach. This would increase near-term geopolitical risk but would likely remain below a regional-war threshold unless casualties surge.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.