Possible scenario
Contained Houthi Campaign
32% Chance
Houthi forces continue launching drones and missiles at Saudi energy facilities, but Saudi and allied defenses prevent a repeat of the largest Abqaiq-style disruption. Oil markets keep a geopolitical premium while broader financial stress remains moderate.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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