Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation
25% Chance
Moscow responds with a larger retaliatory barrage against Ukrainian power, rail and defense-industrial sites. The response raises geopolitical risk but stops short of direct NATO involvement, keeping the market reaction meaningful but not crisis-level.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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