Possible scenario
Campaign Continues
45% Chance
Ukraine keeps using long-range drones against Russian refining capacity, but the latest Moscow refinery strike remains within the established pattern of the war. Russia absorbs the damage through repairs, rerouting and tighter domestic fuel allocation rather than suffering an immediate strategic breakdown.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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