Possible scenario
Allies Defy Washington
20% Chance
London, Paris and Oslo conclude that retreat would be politically costlier than confrontation with Washington. They maintain settlement-trade restrictions and frame them as consistent with international law, while the EU explores legal defenses against US extraterritorial sanctions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.4%
- Finance -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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