Possible scenario
U.S. Counterdeployment Accelerates
25% Chance
Washington uses the Laos base to justify faster deployment of missile, radar, and air-defense assets in the Philippines and potentially northern Australia. Beijing condemns the moves, but both sides stay below direct military confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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