Possible scenario
Blakeman Upset Win
22% Chance
Bruce Blakeman converts dissatisfaction over crime, migration, affordability, and congestion pricing into a rare Republican statewide victory. The upset requires depressed Democratic turnout and a major suburban shift beyond what polls currently imply.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Utilities +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
- SLG+2.0%
- VNO+1.8%
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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