Possible scenario
Yields Break Higher
25% Chance
The recent move in long-end yields extends as traders price a higher term premium and a slower Fed easing path. Gold faces renewed headwinds, though the damage depends on whether the move is driven by real yields or inflation expectations.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.7%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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