Possible scenario
Safety Bid Strengthens
20% Chance
A risk-off session or renewed concern over debt sustainability increases demand for havens. Gold benefits if Treasury yields retreat from multi-decade highs or if reserve managers keep diversifying away from dollar assets.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.3%
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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