Possible scenario
Phased Hormuz Deal
42% Chance
Washington and Tehran converge on a step-by-step formula: Iran reopens Hormuz shipping lanes under monitoring before the US issues limited oil-export or banking relief. This is the most likely path because both sides are signaling room to bargain while preserving public deniability on sanctions relief.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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