Possible scenario
Negotiations Drag On
31% Chance
The sequencing fight continues without a decisive rupture, keeping Hormuz largely closed or only partially accessible. This is plausible because both governments need a face-saving formula, but neither wants to appear to concede first after Trump's denial.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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