Possible scenario
Democratic Upset
20% Chance
Paxton's impeachment history, fraud-case legacy, and intraparty enemies remain salient enough to create a rare opening for Democrats. A strong Democratic nominee turns the race into a referendum on Paxton rather than a generic partisan contest.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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