Possible scenario
Clear Paxton Victory
46% Chance
Ken Paxton uses endorsements from Ted Cruz and Donald Trump to consolidate Republican voters after the bruising primary against John Cornyn. Texas remains structurally favorable to Republicans, and Democrats fail to make the attorney general's legal history the dominant issue with enough suburban voters.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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