Possible scenario
Retaliation Risk Rises
20% Chance
China accepts the WTO agreement formally but retaliates through targeted investigations, procurement pressure, or informal restrictions on European automakers. This outcome is less likely than managed implementation but remains credible given the long-running EU-China EV dispute.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.0%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
Tickers
- STLA-2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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