Possible scenario
Rupture Remains Contained
30% Chance
Bogotá severs formal diplomatic relations but avoids escalation beyond embassy closures, intelligence coordination and public statements. Iran denounces the decision while limiting its response to reciprocal diplomatic steps, keeping market impact minimal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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