Possible scenario
Russia Exploits Gap
30% Chance
Moscow is likely to test Ukraine’s exposed air defenses quickly, especially after the reported 24-missile Zircon barrage. The most probable Russian objective is to damage energy infrastructure, command nodes, and defense industry sites before Western resupply can be organized.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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