Possible scenario
Political Impasse Persists
20% Chance
The shortage may persist because U.S. missile funding is capped, European stocks are thin, and Greece has already blocked a sizable transfer. In this path, Kyiv is forced to ration interceptors while Western governments argue over replacement guarantees and industrial capacity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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