Possible scenario
Emergency Allied Resupply
35% Chance
Washington and key NATO allies treat the Patriot depletion as an urgent battlefield and political failure. The most likely response is a short-term bridge package using U.S. stocks, European inventories, and accelerated contractor deliveries while Congress debates a larger replenishment bill.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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