Possible scenario
Turkey Absorbs Cargoes
40% Chance
Novatek secures Turkish offtake or routing arrangements that replace part of the European demand lost under the 2027 ban. Turkey’s LNG terminals and BOTAŞ contracts become the main practical channel for Russian volumes that can no longer be sold directly into the EU.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Utilities +0.3%
Tickers
- LNG-0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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