Possible scenario
Sanctions Block Workaround
25% Chance
The EU and possibly the US move to close the Turkish workaround before Novatek can lock in material 2027 volumes. Enforcement focuses on cargo-origin certification, terminal documentation, shipping services and banks financing Russian LNG trades.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Utilities -0.7%
Tickers
- LNG+2.7%
- FLNG+0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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