Possible scenario
Saudi Targeting Escalates
25% Chance
A less likely but material escalation would see Houthis continue targeting Saudi aviation, energy, or military infrastructure. Markets would react more strongly if attacks threaten oil export capacity or force temporary airport closures.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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