Possible scenario
Mediated De-escalation
20% Chance
Regional intermediaries, especially Oman and the UN, could push for a pause if both Saudi Arabia and the Houthis want to avoid a broader Gulf confrontation. This would quickly reduce aviation and oil-risk premiums, though the underlying Yemen and Red Sea conflict would remain unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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