Possible scenario
Escalation Spillover Risk
20% Chance
The strike campaign broadens in ways that increase NATO proximity risk or energy-market sensitivity. This is less likely than a contained exchange, but the recent sequence of Ukrainian refinery attacks and Russian ballistic missile use raises tail risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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