Possible scenario
Contained Strike Cycle
45% Chance
Russia and Ukraine continue reciprocal long-range strikes, but the battlefield and diplomatic perimeter remain broadly unchanged. This is the most likely path because both sides have been trading drone and missile attacks without direct NATO involvement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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