Possible scenario
Hezbollah Backlash Builds
15% Chance
Hezbollah and aligned actors conclude that EU support is enabling the Lebanese state to erode their operating space. The response is likely political pressure first, with localized unrest or limited security incidents if arrests and seizures continue.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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