Possible scenario
Nomination Falters
18% Chance
Trump decides that Overton’s public contradiction undermines his vaccine agenda and signals that the nomination may be pulled or allowed to fail. This would revive fears of a more confrontational FDA approach toward vaccine approvals and labeling.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -1.7%
Tickers
- MRNA-6.8%
- MRK-3.3%
- PFE-2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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