Possible scenario
Russia Tests Resolve
24% Chance
Russia responds to the EU transfer with military or hybrid pressure designed to raise the cost of further support for Kyiv. The escalation remains below a direct NATO-Russia confrontation, but it temporarily lifts geopolitical risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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