Possible scenario
EU Funding Frays
18% Chance
The disbursement goes through, but arguments over future tranches intensify inside the EU Council. The most plausible frictions involve conditionality, burden-sharing, and the legal structure for Russian-asset-backed financing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.6%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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